UK Long Range monthly forecasts

July 2010 forecast Summary: CET temperature 17.4C or 0.9C above average*; rainfall 75% and sunshine 120% *The average July CET 1971-2010 is 16.5C, last July 16.1C, 2008 16.2C.
Issued: 30th June 0945GMT

Monthly retrospective for June 2010

June was another dry month with well above average temperatures & good sunshine amounts for most. Mean temperatures were1.5C degrees above the CET overall, though this masked a very warm start in the first week and a warm end in the SE too, when minimum temperatures reached near record high values along with some hot days. There have only been five warmer Junes in the past half century. After a dry start there was a wet period in the east and SE which meant that East Anglia saw near average rainfall despite the dryness of the rest of the month. By week two it became more or less dry and rather sunny everywhere away from some spots in the far north west during the last week. Rainfall was generally around 65% again across England and Wales but as low as 35% across much of northwest England & Western & Northern Scotland. Sunshine was around 130% overall but as high as 150% in SW England and parts of South Wales. Not a great start for many though as June 1stwas a chilly wet day with low pressure moving across southern parts and many places didn't rise above 11C all day, eg Manston, Little Rissington, Sennybridge etc. On the 3rd Santon Downham in Norfolk fell to 1.9C. Some very warm weather saw Howden (Yorks) reach 28.5C on the 5th. However, as low pressure moved across the south, showers and thunderstorms developed in places late on the 5th and through the 6th giving some heavy downpours. In Scotland Threave (Kircudbright) reported 36mm in a 24 hour period and Marham (Norfolk) 29.0mm. Flash flooding was reported in places in Nottinghamshire & Derbyshire but nothing too serious. On June 8th there were further thundery downpours in places and Cardinham nr Bodmin (Cornwall) reported 52mm in a 36 hour period to 18Z with an unofficial report from an observer in the Brecon Beacons of 55mm in the 24 hours to 18Z, the 10th saw 44mm of rainfall at Manston (Kent), the 11th saw a slow moving thundery front moving north across southern parts overnight and it brought some heavy rain into the far south coastal counties of West & East Sussex. Generally 25-30mm fell in a 2 hour period from 0500-0700 but it seems locally that up to twice that may have fallen; some unofficial readings suggest Seaford recorded 49mm, with Polegate & Portslade about 42mm. Seaford Road in Newhaven was blocked after a mini bus got stuck in 3ft of water and flooding also caused problems on parts of the A259 in Worthing, Bexhill, Storrington and Chichester. There was minor flash flooding across much of the Brighton & Hove area. June 17th saw a chilly night . Benson (Oxon), Pershore (Gloucs), Marham (Norfolk) and Church Lawford (Salops) all fell to -1C down on the grass. On the 20th the lowest temperature of the month was reported of -0.1°C at Carter Bar (Roxburghshire). The last week though was very warm in many places. June 22nd saw 28.4C at Howden (Yorks) and on June 27th Gravesend reported the month’s highest figure of 30.9C. The dry weather was becoming an issue in parts of the NW in particular, where reservoir levels were dwindling with a threat of hosepipe bans . On the 29th fronts moved across the west and thunderstorms developed across parts of Wales overnight. 3,000 homes were without power in north Wales in the Anglesey and Gwynedd areas. Lightning also caused gorse fires too; firefighters tackled a gorse fire covering 2,000 sq metres near Llandudno. Further east the hottest spot was Heathrow Airport , with 28.6C reached later in the day.Soil temperatures were near average generally, though later rather above especially in the northwest. Sea temperatures remained rather above average around most parts of the UK, though near average in the Irish Sea and around the Northern Isles.

Forecast summary for July 2010. The first week looks likely to start unsettled in the west with rain & near gales in the extreme NW but a ridge of high pressure holding on in the east but as it moves away east high a fresher south west to westerly flow with showers will move into all parts though the SE and east may not see this until later Sunday after the risk of some thundery rain but then as high pressure reasserts in the south generally remaining dry & fairly sunny for most but further north & west a lot of cloud with showery outbreaks continuing at times. By week two low pressure seems likely to dominate across the north west and remain close to northern parts for much of the rest of the week, but with the south under the influence of high pressure with dry, sunny days much of the time after any early mist or fog patches clear inland though showery rain, possibly thundery may affect the SE at times though with some showers building by the afternoon almost anywhere in the south and central areas later in the week inland. By the end of the week it looks like weak low pressure may be more dominant in the south west , moving up into the south or SE parts, whilst a more settled spell seems possible in the north, as high pressure moves a little further north for a time. The third week may then see the high pressure slip away east or SE to allow a more S’ly flow to dominate but as further areas of low pressure & fronts run east into western areas by midweek more unsettled weather in the north & west especially, whilst the east, south and SE stays generally drier, brighter by day, still under the influence of the high pressure but the cooler fresher weather reaching eastern parts too after midweek possibly accompanied by thunder & some heavy downpours as it does so. By the end of the week high pressure may dominate rather more for all parts bringing reasonably warm sunny weather by day though cooler nights. Whilst there are no clear signals about the end of July as yet, it will probably be rather unsettled in the north and NW with low pressure dominating here but the south & SE may be drier & brighter, though some rain and showers may well affect here at times too, some thundery though generally staying bit more settled in central parts of England. Sea temperatures staying above average for most parts, especially around the SW and western coasts and parts of the central N Sea ; near average in the Irish Sea but slightly below average in the Northern Isles; soil temperatures near or above average for most parts with soil moisture rather below average for most areas esp

Wiseweather disclaimer - The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data. ‘Wiseweather’ are providing this data "as is" and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ‘Wiseweather’, or its contactors be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data

UK SUMMARY MAP FOR JULY 2010