July 2008 long range forecast
Summary: CET
temperature 15.8C or 0.7C below average; rainfall 125% and sunshine 90%*
The average July CET 1971-2000 was 16.5C, last July 15.2, 2006 19.7C
Issued: 30th June 1100BST
After a very average June with figures close to the means for most values, though notably
dry and sunny in the SW and wet in central and eastern Scotland, the pattern seems set to change in the next week to a rather
unsettled set up, although not a classically mobile one. This will give the UK one of the cooler Julies of the last decade
or so. As high pressure becomes slow moving just about everywhere except over
the UK, it looks like cool unsettled pools of upper air will settled across the UK and lead to slow moving areas of low pressure
for most parts initially although a more NE'ly flow seems likely into week 2 and 3 with pressure high to the NE of Scotland. It
will feel particularly poor, not so much because it is unusually poor but because the southerly patterns
we have come to expect in recent summers will be absent. In fact it is worth noting that in recent years there have been
an increasing number of summer months in which a cyclonic or more N'ly pattern has in fact dominated. Later in the month
high pressure may become a little more dominant however, and brief periods of anticyclonic conditions and then short
lived southerly flows will see the temperatures rising to near or a little above average values, although we don't
expected any protracted warm spells. Warmth will be short lived and soon replaced by fresher westerlies.
Overall temperatures will be slightly
below average on the whole, especially in the NE and east and especially below average by night in the
north. However they may be nearer average in the far south and the SW. Rainfall is likely to be somewhat above average
for most parts, especially across central parts though locally parts of the south and the far north may
well be near or possibly slightly below average. Sunshine will be rather below the long term average
for most parts but nearer average in the parts of the south and possibly far north. Winds will generally be near average speed overall though the east coasts could
be rather breezy at times. Thunder will be near average in central, southern and western areas, nearer or below
average in the east/NE. Sea temperatures will continue to be near
or slightly above normal around the UK, except in the Celtic and Irish Seas where they will be a degree below normal
whilst the southern North Sea and east Channel sees temperature 1-2C above average still. Soil temperatures will tend to be near average for most parts with soil moisture deficits slightly
below average in the north but near or a little above average in the south, though with some deficits remaining
in parts of the SW and E Anglia.
Week
1 1st-7th July
The months starts with deep low pressure across the Atlantic west of Ireland and
high pressure dominating the near continent, giving a short lived southerly flow across
the UK. It will be warm in the south and east but bands of showery rain will soon move east across the country giving
a short wet spell which may be on the thundery side in a few places in the south and east. Clearer fresher weather
will move across all parts by the 2nd though but there will be plenty of showers, some heavy in the west with a rumble of
thunder. Pulses of heavier showery rain may especially affect parts of Wales and the north west on the 3rd and 4th and the
SW on the 4th into the 5th. Almost anywhere though could see some heavy and potentially thundery showers in this period with
the risk of some hail mixed in. Some mist or low cloud could form inland overnight in the relatively light winds, especially
if there have been a lot of showers with wet ground. The end of the weekend seems likely to see areas of low pressure dominant
across southern or central parts so a continuation of cool cloudy weather, though some bright starts in the east especially
but cloud soon bubbling up to give showers, which could again be heavy almost anywhere with a rumble or two of thunder and
small hail. The driest and sunniest places in this period probably in the east and SE.
Temperatures rather below average after a short lived warm start in the east and perhaps
not too far off average in some SE parts overall, as nights will not be all that chilly except across central Scotland at
times. Rainfall generally above average in the west and central parts but
probably nearer average in the east, SE and NE though prone to local anomalies due to the showery nature of the
period with sunshine generally below average in most parts, perhaps well below in the west but less so in the east and
SE.
